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Assessment of Largescale Environmental Factors Affecting Typhoon Intensity in Northwest Pacific Simulated by Global Climate Models
WU Bin, QIAN Ye, WANG Ruifang, ZHAO Xin, JIN Lei
Journal of Arid Meteorology
2021, 39 (3):
466-479.
Based on NOAA and NCEP reanalysis data and historical running output results from coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models (CMIP5), the capability of those models in simulating the climatic field of the largescale environmental factors controlling typhoon intensity was evaluated firstly. Then, the capability of CMIP5 models in simulating the spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of the environmental factors was evaluated over the major regions of typhoon development. The results show that there were great differences in the climatic field and spatiotemporal changes of the largescale environmental factors in CMIP5 models. CESM1BGC, CESM1CAM5 and CNRMCM5 could well simulate the climate distribution and increasing characteristics of the observed sea surface temperature. CCSM4, CESM1BGC and CESM1CAM5 could well simulate the climate distribution and thickening characteristics of the observed ocean mixed layer thickness. ACCESS10, ACCESS13, CANESM2 and GFDLESM2M could well simulate the climate distribution and decreasing characteristics of the observed outflow layer temperature, but the simulated decreasing amplitude was small. Access10, CESM1CAM5, CNRMCM5, MPAESMMR and GFDLESM2M could well simulate the climate distribution and trend characteristics of the observed vertical wind shear. The comprehensive evaluation showed that CESM1BGC and CESM1CAM5 could be used to study the climate change of typhoon intensity in the northwest Pacific ocean.
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